Abstract #300978

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JSM 2003 Abstract #300978
Activity Number: 181
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 4, 2003 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistical Education
Abstract - #300978
Title: Using National Film Critics to Predict Video Renters' Movie Satisfaction
Author(s): Richard E. Auer*+ and Paul J. Maiste
Companies: Loyola College in Maryland and Johns Hopkins University
Address: 4501 N. Charles St., Baltimore, MD, 21210-2601,
Keywords: film quality ; logit regression ; multiple linear regression ; analysis of variance ; Tukey's studentized range test
Abstract:

We consider how a set of ratings on 100 movies assigned by 15 nationally known film critics may be used to narrow the field of movies a person considers when faced with renting a video. Several statistical approaches are applied for predicting how much a person renting a video will like the movie based on these experts' opinions. The approaches range from simple-minded to sophisticated -- from conglomerate measures (means) to regression models (linear and logit). Some of the methods effectively consider which critics "think" most like the video renter. Students of statistics are able to view a survey of prediction techniques with an analysis of variance and Tukey's studentized range test, ultimately checking for an optimal prediction method. These students may guess that the most advanced techniques and those well suited to the type of data will perform the best. Meanwhile, movie lovers experience a relatively rare application of statistics to the cinema and a literature review describing recent research on film critics' ratings.

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