Abstract #300955

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JSM 2003 Abstract #300955
Activity Number: 325
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 6, 2003 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Risk Analysis
Abstract - #300955
Title: Risk Reduction Through Reliability Improvement
Author(s): Wai F. Chiu*+ and Arthur P. Dempster
Companies: Harvard University and Harvard University
Address: Department of Statistics, Cambridge, MA, 02138,
Keywords: extended Bayes ; belief functions ; Dempster-Shafer ; hidden Markov models ; join trees
Abstract:

We define and illustrate an approach to reliability testing and system improvement that uses an extended Bayes probability calculus based on Dempster-Shafer belief function logic. We study a simple model where binomial data are collected in a sequence of stages. We assume that between each data collection stage an effort is made to root out faults and no new defect is introduced, so that we may assume system reliability to be improving at each stage. We define and illustrate fast and simple numerical algorithms that take advantage of the underlying join tree structure associated with hidden Markov models. The model permits flexible introduction of expert opinion on the degree of reliability improvement at each stage. The final reliability estimate makes optimal use of expert opinion and empirical test data from previous stages.

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