Abstract #300871

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JSM 2003 Abstract #300871
Activity Number: 390
Type: Luncheons
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 6, 2003 : 12:30 PM to 1:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Survey Research Methods
Abstract - #300871
Title: Small Area Estimation for Production: "Smoothing" the Obstacles for Routine Use and "Shrinking" the Gap with Design- Based Estimates - THIS LUNCHEON IS CANCELLED
Author(s): Donald Malec*+
Companies: U.S. Census Bureau
Address: 321 Penwood Rd., Silver Spring, MD, 20901-2717,
Keywords:
Abstract:

Model-based estimates for areas with little data, using data from large surveys, appear to have found a niche among sample survey methods. This is mainly because they can provide needed information where little is available. The demand for small area estimates is increasing, but making them is often a slow process. Small area estimation typically involves intensive modeling, methods development, and validation for each variable of interest. We will entertain the question whether small area estimates should (or can) be provided on a large scale, equaling the variety of estimates usually provided by surveys for larger areas. Topics will include (1) the use of standard estimation techniques and standard validation tools that require little new development, (2) the pros and cons of the development of automatic modeling for small areas, (3) the need for aggregated small area estimates to fit in with design-based estimates, including the choice of levels of aggregation, and (4) the usefulness of presenting design-based properties of small area estimates.

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