Abstract #300858

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JSM 2003 Abstract #300858
Activity Number: 76
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 4, 2003 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Survey Research Methods
Abstract - #300858
Title: A Comparison of Several Variance Estimators for the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey
Author(s): Jock R. Black*+ and Brett C. Moore and Xijian Liu
Companies: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Census Bureau
Address: 4733 Springbrook Dr., Annandale, VA, 22003-3934,
Keywords: replication variance estimation ; finite population ; stratified jackknife ; Taylor series ; random groups ; simulation
Abstract:

The Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, provides the earliest official estimates of retail sales. Estimates of change from the previous month are the most important measures from that survey. Several options for variance estimation of the month-to-month ratio from the survey are compared. The random groups method is compared to the delete-a-group jackknife method, and a procedure to account for added variance due to nonresponse in the certainty stratum is tested. We address some particular features of the survey: small sample sizes, nonlinear parameter estimation, and high nonresponse rates. It consists of a Monte Carlo simulation of mean squared error and confidence interval coverage, and a historical comparison based on survey data from previous months.

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