Abstract #300836

This is the preliminary program for the 2003 Joint Statistical Meetings in San Francisco, California. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 2-5, 2003); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

To View the Program:
You may choose to view all activities of the program or just parts of it at any one time. All activities are arranged by date and time.

The views expressed here are those of the individual authors
and not necessarily those of the ASA or its board, officers, or staff.

Back to main JSM 2003 Program page
JSM 2003 Abstract #300836
Activity Number: 12
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Sunday, August 3, 2003 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Survey Research Methods
Abstract - #300836
Title: Estimating Low-Value Exports from the U.S.
Author(s): Patrick J. Cantwell*+ and Ryan Fescina and Melvin McCullough
Companies: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Census Bureau
Address: 14603 Colonels Choice, Upper Marlboro, MD, 20772-2884,
Keywords: truncation ; missing data ; borrowing strength ; Automated Export System
Abstract:

Each month the Census Bureau receives documents describing all U.S. exports over $2,500. Exporters are not required to report their "low-value" exports, i.e., those valued at or under $2,500. Factors determined in the late 1980's to estimate the low-value component of total exports for each country remain the same even as export patterns have changed. We propose a new method to estimate the low-value component that (1) accurately represents what is currently being exported, and (2) can adapt over time with minimal review to reflect changes in export patterns. In our research, we analyze data from the Automated Export System. Although most exporters report their data under this system, only about 20% provide details on their low-value exports. Under our approach, we divide the low-value component for a country into several pieces according to commodity groups and modes of transport, and derive factors for each piece. Where fewer data are available, information is drawn from larger groups or other countries. Finally, we combine the factors, weighing the amounts of data available and the variability and predictive ability of the information.

  • The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
  • Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2003 program

JSM 2003 For information, contact meetings@amstat.org or phone (703) 684-1221. If you have questions about the Continuing Education program, please contact the Education Department.
Revised March 2003