|
Activity Number:
|
286
|
|
Type:
|
Topic Contributed
|
|
Date/Time:
|
Tuesday, August 5, 2003 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
|
|
Sponsor:
|
Section on Statistics & the Environment
|
| Abstract - #300763 |
|
Title:
|
Should Climate Models Be Deterministic?
|
|
Author(s):
|
Douglas W. Nychka*+ and Tilmann Gneiting*+ and Joseph Tribbia*+ and L. Mark Berliner*+
|
|
Companies:
|
National Center of Atmospheric Research and University of Washington and University Corporation of Atmospheric Research and Ohio State University
|
|
Address:
|
PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO, 80307-3000, Dept. of Statistics, Seattle, WA, 98195-4322, Box 3000, Boulder, CO, 80307, 1958 Neil Ave., Columbus, OH, 43210-1247,
|
|
Keywords:
|
climate modeling ; stochastic modeling ; ensemble forecast ; dynamic models ; space-time processes ; uncertainty
|
|
Abstract:
|
The current methods of meteorological forecasting are based on numerical deterministic models that have unknown levels of uncertainty. These dynamical climate models are based on the integration of equations that are supposed to represent the"dynamics" or "physics" of the climate system. An area with great importance for future developments in weather forecast and climate prediction involves stochastic modeling. This panel invites suggestions to the development and justification of climate models using stochastic models. The essential question becomes: can weather and climate prediction be done using a unified statistical framework accepted by scientists?
|
- The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
- Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
Back to the full JSM 2003 program |
