Abstract #300681

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JSM 2003 Abstract #300681
Activity Number: 186
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 5, 2003 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics & the Environment
Abstract - #300681
Title: DYCAST: System Identifying West Nile Virus Risk Areas
Author(s): Constandinos Theophilides*+
Companies: Ctr. for the Analysis and Research of Spatial Information
Address: Hunter College, City University of NY, New York, NY, 10021,
Keywords: Geographic Information Systems ; space-time interaction ; West Nile Virus
Abstract:

The Dynamic Continuous Area Space Time system was developed to identify and prospectively monitor high risk areas for West Nile Virus (WNV) in New York City (NYC). The system is a based on a geographical model that uses a localized Knox test to capture nonrandom space-time interaction of dead birds, as an indicator of an intense WNV amplification cycle, within a 1.5 mile buffer area and 21-day moving window. The Knox analysis is implemented as an interpolation function in order to create a surface of probabilities, over a grid of 1,400 cells overlaying NYC. The model's parameters were calibrated using year 2000 data and information on the vector-host transmission cycle. DYCAST was implemented in a Geographic Information System and used operationally in 2001. It successfully identified areas of high risk for human WNV infection in areas where 5 of 7 human cases resided, at least 13 days prior to onset of illness, and proved to be an effective tool for targeting remediation and control efforts.

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