Abstract #300554

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JSM 2003 Abstract #300554
Activity Number: 241
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 5, 2003 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Business & Economics Statistics Section
Abstract - #300554
Title: Steps Toward Modeling the Distribution of Automobile Retirements
Author(s): Brian Sliker*+
Companies: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Address: 3515 N Washington Blvd., Arlington, VA, 22201,
Keywords: order statistics ; reliability ; unbalanced panel ; automobile retirements
Abstract:

For its next comprehensive revision, BEA is reviewing some of its depreciation estimates: the decline in used asset values, and a big part of capital income. Many BEA depreciation rates draw on age-price regressions, some attrition-adjusted by Winfrey distributions. This paper uses order statistics to weight Weibull regressions of car lives. The data, a pseudopanel of registrations, are right- and interval-censored and left-truncated; this last causes nonlinearity. No model-year is shown past 15 years, and many for less: the earliest are the most left-truncated; the latest the most right-censored. The method fits 26 model-year distributions evolving in two regimes: one, possibly bimodal (lemons), of mild right skew and slowly increasing retirement ages, till the 1980 vintage; then one of growing skew and tenure. Fitted median lifespans are 11.4 years for the 1970 vintage and 12.6 for 1980 (not far from BEA's assumed 12-year lifespan) but 15.9 for 1990; confidence bounds are tight. Future work using prices will assess if the extra years materially affect depreciation. Model- and calendar-year variance components are tested in residual-regressions to avoid nonlinearities.

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