Abstract #300516

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JSM 2003 Abstract #300516
Activity Number: 12
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Sunday, August 3, 2003 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Survey Research Methods
Abstract - #300516
Title: Chain Drift in Experimental Air Travel Price Index Series
Author(s): Janice Lent*+
Companies: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Address: 400 7th St. SW, Washington, DC, 20590,
Keywords: index chaining ; superlative index
Abstract:

The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) is developing a new price index series for consumer air travel, based entirely on data from its own Origin and Destination (O&D) Survey. We present research undertaken to determine an appropriate "chaining" interval for the new series. Previous studies (e.g., Szulc 1983, Lent 2000) have indicated that index chaining--computing long-term indexes as products of shorter-term ones--can sometimes produce indexes that "drift" away from the directly computed counterparts. Due to the unique nature of the O&D Survey data and the experimental estimation methodology, we conducted a special empirical study to assess the direction and severity of the chain drift in the new indexes. We discuss our results for several index series, e.g., series based on different index formulas and series computed for different subdomains of the population.

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