Abstract #300505

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JSM 2003 Abstract #300505
Activity Number: 342
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 6, 2003 : 9:00 AM to 10:50 AM
Sponsor: Section on Government Statistics
Abstract - #300505
Title: Applied Multiple Regression for Surveys with Regressors of Changing Relevance: Fuel Switching by Electric Power Producers
Author(s): James R. Knaub*+
Companies: Energy Information Administration
Address: 2454 N. Jefferson St., Arlington, VA, 22207-1414,
Keywords: prediction ; imputation ; small area estimation ; regressors ; regression weights ; performance measure
Abstract:

This research concerns multiple regression for survey imputation, when correlation with a given regressor may vary radically over time, and emphasis may shift to other regressors. There may be many applications for this methodology, but here we will consider the imputation of generation and fuel consumption values for electric power producers in a monthly publication environment. When imputation is done by regression, a sufficient amount of good quality observed data from the population of interest is required, as well as good quality, related regressor data, for all cases in the population. For this application, the concept of "fuel switching" will be considered. That is, a given power producer may report using a given set of fuels for one time period, but for economic or other practical reasons, fuel usage may change dramatically in a subsequent time period. Testing has shown the potential usefulness of employing an additional regressor or regressors to represent alternative fuel sources. A performance measure introduced in Knaub (JSM 2002 CD), is used to compare results. Also, the impact of regression weights is considered under this application of multiple regression.

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