Abstract #300356

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JSM 2003 Abstract #300356
Activity Number: 347
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 6, 2003 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Cmte of Representatives to AAAS
Abstract - #300356
Title: Statistical Models for Anthrax
Author(s): Ron Brookmeyer*+
Companies: Johns Hopkins University
Address: 615 N. Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD, 21205-2103,
Keywords: epidemics ; bioterrorism ; anthrax ; models ; public health
Abstract:

This talk will consider the role of statistical models in understanding of anthrax outbreaks. In the fall of 2001, an act of bioterrorism resulted in an anthrax outbreak in the United States. Public health officials responded by distributing antibiotics to attempt to reduce morbidity and mortality. We will consider the role of statistical models for understanding what happened in the fall of 2001 and as a tool for public health practitioners in responding to any possible future outbreaks. The statistical models provide insight into the incubation period of anthrax and its public health implications. Our overall findings emphasize the importance of early detection of outbreaks to minimize morbidity and mortality. The models may also be helpful in identifying the unknown source of an outbreak by estimating the date cases were exposed to anthrax spores.

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