Abstract #300327

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JSM 2003 Abstract #300327
Activity Number: 265
Type: Luncheons
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 5, 2003 : 12:30 PM to 1:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics & the Environment
Abstract - #300327
Title: Statistical Issues in Air Pollution Risk Estimations
Author(s): Francesca Dominici*+
Companies: Johns Hopkins University
Address: 615 N. Wolfe St., Baltimore, MD, 21205-2103,
Keywords: EPA ; National Air Quality Standard ; Air Pollution ; Generalized Additive Models ; Semi-parametric Regression
Abstract:

In 2002, time series analyses of air pollution and health attracted the attention of statisticians, epidemiologists, the press, and policymakers. As the Environmental Protection Agency was finalizing their review of the scientific literature on particulate matter air pollution, statisticians and epidemiologists pointed out that the S-Plus implementation of Generalized Additive Models, the most common statistical approach for time series analysis of air pollution and health, can overestimate effects of air pollution and understate statistical uncertainty. This discovery delayed the review process for the PM National Ambient Air Quality Standard, since the time series findings were critical evidence. We will discuss issues in semiparametric regressions directly relevant to risk estimation of air pollution.

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Revised March 2003