Abstract #300181

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JSM 2003 Abstract #300181
Activity Number: 429
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Thursday, August 7, 2003 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Risk Analysis
Abstract - #300181
Title: Assessing Risks for Complex Systems: A Case Study in Missiles
Author(s): Alyson G. Wilson*+ and Laura McNamara
Companies: Los Alamos National Laboratory and Los Alamos National Laboratory
Address: 2141 45TH ST, Los Alamos, NM, 87544-2253,
Keywords: graphical models ; reliability ; Bayesian methods
Abstract:

From its earliest days, LANL has had a prominent role in the development and evaluation of the nuclear weapons stockpile, but the end of the Cold War brought significant changes to how this mission could be carried out. There have been significant reductions in the number of weapons, leading to a smaller, "enduring" stockpile. The United States is no longer manufacturing new-design weapons, and it is consolidating facilities across the nuclear weapons complex. In 1992, the United States declared a moratorium on underground nuclear testing; in 1995, the moratorium was extended, and President Clinton decided to pursue a "zero yield" Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. However, the basic mission of LANL remains unchanged: LANL must evaluate the weapons in the aging nuclear stockpile and certify their safety, reliability, and performance even though the live test data that has traditionally been used for this evaluation can no longer be collected.

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