Abstract #300175

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JSM 2003 Abstract #300175
Activity Number: 347
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 6, 2003 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Cmte of Representatives to AAAS
Abstract - #300175
Title: Analytic Methods for the Control of Bioterrorist Smallpox
Author(s): Ira M. Longini*+ and M. Elizabeth Halloran and Azhar Nizam
Companies: Emory University and Emory University and Emory University
Address: School of Public Health, Atlanta, GA, 30322-0001,
Keywords: bioterrorism ; vaccination ; smallpox ; stochastic ; epidemic model ; monte carlo simulation
Abstract:

A planned response to a deliberate introduction of smallpox is needed. Since smallpox vaccine can be potentially harmful, control strategies that utilize vaccine efficiently are important. To help plan such effective strategies, we use stochastic simulation models of smallpox transmission in structured communities of various sizes in the U.S. The communities contain households, neighborhoods, preschool groups, schools, adult work places, and hospitals. The model includes a detailed description of the natural history of various forms of smallpox and varying degrees of immunity for previously vaccinated people. The model is calibrated to information from past smallpox outbreaks but reflects the current structure of the U.S. population based on census information. We simulate a number of plausible attack scenarios ranging form small localized to larger dispersed releases. We evaluate various vaccination control strategies ranging from mass vaccination before a deliberate release to targeted vaccination and containment after such a release. Concentrating vaccine where transmission occurs or could occur provides the most efficient use of the vaccine.

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