Abstract #300081

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JSM 2003 Abstract #300081
Activity Number: 394
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 6, 2003 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Environmental and Ecological Statistics
Abstract - #300081
Title: A Simulated Annealing Strategy for the Detection of Irregularly Shaped Spatial Clusters
Author(s): Luiz Duczmal*+ and Renato Assunção
Companies: Universidade Federal De Minas Gerais and Departamento De Estatística - UFMG - Brazil
Address: Rua Java 186--Nova Suissa, Belo Horizonte - MG, 30460-160, Brazil
Keywords: Spatial cluster detection ; hot-spot detection ; simulated annealing ; likelihood ratio test ; disease clusters
Abstract:

We propose a new graph-based strategy for the detection of spatial clusters of arbitrary geometric form in a map of georeferenced populations and cases. Our test statistic is based on the likelihood ratio test previously formulated by Kulldorff and Nagarwalla for circular clusters. A new technique of adaptive simulated annealing is developed, focused on the problem of finding the local maxima of a certain likelihood function over the space of the connected subgraphs of the graph associated to the regions of interest. Given a map with n regions, on average this algorithm finds a quasi-optimal solution after analyzing s n log(n) subgraphs, where s depends on the case's density uniformity in the map. The algorithm is applied to a study of homicide clusters detection in a Brazilian large metropolitan area. We also discuss applications for disease clusters detection.

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