Abstract #301875

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JSM 2002 Abstract #301875
Activity Number: 22
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Sunday, August 11, 2002 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Biometrics Section*
Abstract - #301875
Title: Bias of Two-State Latent Markov Process Parameter Estimates in the Presence of Misclassification
Author(s): Rhonda Rosychuk*+ and Mary Thompson
Affiliation(s): University of Alberta and University of Waterloo
Address: 9423 Aberhart Centre, Edmonton, Alberta, T6G 2J3, Canada
Keywords: bias ; hidden Markov models ; aproximation
Abstract:

Responses may be misclassified when a diagnostic test is imperfect. The diagnostic test may not accurately reflect the underlying state of a disease process. We consider a two-state continuous-time Markov model for an unobservable alternating binary process. A related process, such as the repeated diagnostic test results, is observed at discrete time points. We examine the behaviour of maximum likelihood transition probability estimates as functions of known misclassification probabilities. Since maximum likelihood estimators are not available in closed form, we provide approximate estimators that are bias-adjusted and easily constructed. Simulation studies reveal the effect of misclassification on estimation. We demonstrate the methodology on repeated diagnostic testing of parasitic infection.

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Revised March 2002