Abstract #301698

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JSM 2002 Abstract #301698
Activity Number: 146
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 12, 2002 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Risk Analysis*
Abstract - #301698
Title: Modeling and Risk-Benefit Assessment of Smallpox Vaccination
Author(s): Steven Anderson*+
Affiliation(s): Food and Drug Administration
Address: 1401 Rockville Pike, Rockville , Maryland, 20852, USA
Keywords: bioterrorism ; public health ; smallpox ; vaccination ; risk assessment ; Monte Carlo
Abstract:

Recent terrorist events have prompted government officials to prepare for the possibility that an agent such as smallpox might be disseminated in an act of bioterrorism. Because smallpox is communicable, the exposure of even a small number of individuals could lead to a large epidemic in a matter of days. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) model was developed to simulate the potential public health impacts should a smallpox outbreak arise. The model can estimate the daily public health outcomes associated with the exposure of a population to the smallpox virus and the effects of vaccination. Using the model, a risk-benefit assessment of a "ring vaccination" strategy, in which close contacts of infected individuals are immunized to prevent the spread of the disease, was developed. Additionally, scenarios for widespread vaccination of populations, such as first responders and healthcare professionals, and the use of stockpiled and newly manufactured vaccine were analyzed. The assessment and model might be used as public health tools by policy makers to optimize the benefits of vaccination while keeping the risks to the American public to a minimum.

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Revised March 2002