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Activity Number:
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215
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, August 13, 2002 : 12:00 PM to 1:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics in Epidemiology*
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| Abstract - #301518 |
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Title:
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Stochastic Models for Estimating the Risk of Urban Yellow Fever Transmission
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Author(s):
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Claudio Struchiner*+ and Paula Luz and Claudia Codeço and Eduardo Massad
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Affiliation(s):
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Fundação Oswaldo Cruz and Fundação Oswaldo Cruz and Fundação Oswaldo Cruz and Universidade de São Paulo
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Address:
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Av Brasil 4365, Rio de Janeiro, , 21045 900, Brazil
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Keywords:
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Yellow Fever ; Stochastic Basic Reproductive Number ; Vaccine Adverse Effects
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Abstract:
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Yellow Fever transmission in Brazil is restricted to the sylvatic cycle, and humans become infected only when they intrude an active foci. Control of the disease among humans seeks to vaccinate those under risk. The presence of the mosquito vector for the disease in urban settings sets the conditions for the establishment of transmission in the country's major cities. In addition, recent vaccination campaigns have been followed by the occurrence of adverse effects leading to death, a finding that had not been reported in the past. We estimate the risk of vaccine-associated adverse effects and develop a stochastic transmission model that estimates the probability of the disease becoming urban. The model incorparates elements of a stochastic version of the basic reproductive number and an interaction matrix relating the human population to the sylvatic cycle. It is used to design optimum vaccination strategies in the presence of serious adverse reactions associated to the vaccine.
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