Abstract #301491

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JSM 2002 Abstract #301491
Activity Number: 372
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 15, 2002 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistical Computing*
Abstract - #301491
Title: A Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible Model with Reintroduction for Computer Virus Epidemics
Author(s): John Wierman*+
Affiliation(s): Johns Hopkins University
Address: 104 Whitehead Hall, Baltimore , Maryland, 21218, USA
Keywords: epidemic ; computer virus ; SIS model ; quasi-stationary
Abstract:

Computer viruses are an extremely important aspect of computer security, and understanding their spread and extent is an important component of any defensive strategy. Epidemiological models have been proposed to deal with this issue. We consider a modification of the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemiological model as a model of computer virus spread. This model includes a reintroduction parameter, which models the re-release of a computer virus, or the introduction of a new virus. This is a more realistic model of computer virus spread than the standard SIS model, and can be used to understand the behavior of the quasi-stationary regime of the SIS model. One virtue of the model is that it can be analyzed as a birth-and-death process with a non-trivial stationary distribution. The stationary distribution can then be approximated by a Poisson, normal, or modified logarithmic distribution, for different regions of the parameter space.

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