Abstract #301441

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JSM 2002 Abstract #301441
Activity Number: 70
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 12, 2002 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics & the Environment*
Abstract - #301441
Title: Assessment of Wildfire Risk Estimates in Los Angeles County, California
Author(s): Frederic Paik-Schoenberg*+ and Roger Peng
Affiliation(s): University of California, Los Angeles and University of California, Los Angeles
Address: 8142 Math-Science Building, Los Angeles, California, 90095-1554, USA
Keywords: model evaluation ; coverage processes ; point processes ; environmental statistics ; wildfires
Abstract:

The Burning Index (BI) is commonly used in the United States as an index for wildfire danger. An assessment is made here of the strengths and weaknesses of this index in the forecasting of wildfire risk in Los Angeles County. Mosaics of wildfires are viewed as coverage processes generated by point processes whose conditional intensity is influenced by the BI scores at nearby weather stations.

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Revised March 2002