Abstract #301271

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JSM 2002 Abstract #301271
Activity Number: 168
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports*
Abstract - #301271
Title: Does Chance Explain the Any Given Sunday Phenomena?
Author(s): William Hurley*+
Affiliation(s): Royal Military College
Address: , Kingston, Ontario, K7K 5L0, Canada
Keywords: football ; turnovers ; parity ; NFL
Abstract:

The conventional wisdom argues that "parity" is the source of the "On Any Given Sunday" (OAGS) phenomenon in the NFL. This paper explores the role of turnovers in explaining the frequency of upsets. We first characterize the nature of turnover risk on a given NFL play and then examine whether the chance nature of turnovers can explain instances where inferior teams beat superior teams.

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Revised March 2002