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Activity Number:
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178
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, August 13, 2002 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
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Sponsor:
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Social Statistics Section*
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| Abstract - #301214 |
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Title:
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Modeling Age-Specific Mortality Rates and Forecasting Age Distributions
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Author(s):
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Pen-Che Ho*+ and Igor Zurbenko
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Affiliation(s):
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State University of New York, Albany and State University of New York, Albany
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Address:
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, , , ,
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Keywords:
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mortality rates ; age distribution ; time series
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Abstract:
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This paper is aimed to model and forecast age-specific mortality rates for single year of age in United States and, by applying the age-specific mortality rates to the latest census results, to construct the future age distributions. One major difficulty on modeling the age-specific mortality rates is that we have to consider two kinds of correlations simultaneously, longitudinal correlations (autocorrelation, correlations over time) and cross-sectional correlations (correlations between ages, especially between neighboring ages). Time series methods provide excellent modeling tools for us to account for the autocorrelation, but we might obtain implausible mortality patterns in the future if we are to model each age-specific mortality rate at its own pattern without taking into account the relations among ages.
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- The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
- Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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