Abstract #301183

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JSM 2002 Abstract #301183
Activity Number: 356
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 14, 2002 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Business & Economics Statistics Section*
Abstract - #301183
Title: Accuracy of Nonlinear Forecast Models Based on a Set of Historical Values Using Fixed Starting Points
Author(s): Martin Selzer*+
Affiliation(s): National Exchange Carrier Association
Address: 80 South Jefferson Road, Whippany, New Jersey, 07981, USA
Keywords: Forecasting ; Non-linear Regression ; Data Updates ; Visual Basic Applications
Abstract:

A forecasting model can be framed such that the starting point over a forecast horizon is known and historical values are available to develop projections. This kind of model is useful for forecasting problems where a value is observed in an initial period and then updated in future periods. The goal is to predict the last period updated value from the initial observed value. The current research uses data from the National Exchange Carrier Association earnings evaluation process to test non-linear models to predict revenues reported by firms.

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Revised March 2002