Abstract #301172

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JSM 2002 Abstract #301172
Activity Number: 404
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 15, 2002 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Social Statistics Section*
Abstract - #301172
Title: Applying Forecasting Intervals to Forecasts for the German Higher Education System
Author(s): Stephan Boes*+ and Peter Pflaumer
Affiliation(s): University of Dortmund and Fachhochschule Kempten
Address: , Dortmund, International, D-44221, Germany
Keywords: Forecasting ; Monte Carlo Methods ; Social Simulation
Abstract:

The German system of higher education gives only a few regulations to its participants. Each participant can decide when, where, how, and with what speed he or she wants to study. This fact causes loads of problems to anyone trying to forecast the future student total and number of graduates. Official forecasts are calculated following a rough transition model, taking into account current parameters, as well as political aims, and assumptions for the ratio of beginners, the time of stay in the system, and the ratio of graduation. High and low alternatives are given, but no expression of uncertainties, which are supposed to be very high due to the free-to-decide system.

This work focuses on these uncertainties. Probability distributions are set to the important parameters, based mostly on empirical evidence and on some assumptions. Using Monte Carlo methods, forecast intervals are produced that shed a different light on future developments.

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