Abstract #301128

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JSM 2002 Abstract #301128
Activity Number: 168
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports*
Abstract - #301128
Title: A Penalized Maximum Likelihood Approach for the Ranking of College Football Teams
Author(s): David Mease*+
Affiliation(s): University of Michigan
Address: 4062 Frieze Building, Ann Arbor, Michigan, 48109-1285, USA
Keywords: Maximum Likelihood ; Football Rankings
Abstract:

We introduce a penalized maximum likelihood approach for ranking all NCAA Division 1-A college football teams. The model is based solely on win/loss data. Despite the simplicity, it gives rankings which have greater agreement with popular opinion (i.e,. AP and Coaches Polls) than the more complex models which are currently used by the Bowl Championship Series (BCS). A brief review of the relevant literature will be presented, including both linear model methodology as well as competing maximum likelihood methods. General descriptions of the BCS computer models will also be given. We will address the goals of such models and discuss various controversies surrounding the choice of inputs. Implementation of the proposed model, using standard statistical software packages, will also be described.

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Revised March 2002