Abstract #301065

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JSM 2002 Abstract #301065
Activity Number: 67
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 12, 2002 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Physical & Engineering Sciences*
Abstract - #301065
Title: Reliability Models with Competing Risks and Incompletely Identified Causes of Failure
Author(s): Emmanuel Yashchin*+ and Benjamin Reiser and Betty Flehinger
Affiliation(s): IBM Research and Haifa University and IBM Research (Retired)
Address: T.J. Watson Research Ctr., Rte 134, Yorktown Heights, , New York, 10598, USA
Keywords: Life Testing ; Masking ; 2-stage experimentation
Abstract:

We consider a situation in which systems are subject to failure from independent competing risks. Following a failure, immediate (stage-1) procedures are used in an attempt to reach a definitive diagnosis. If these procedures fail to result in a diagnosis, this phenomenon is called masking. Stage-2 procedures, such as failure analysis or autopsy, provide definitive diagnosis for a sample of the masked cases. We show how stage-1 and stage-2 information can be combined to provide statistical inference about (a) survival functions of the individual risks, (b) the proportions of failures associated with individual risks, and (c) probability, for a specified masked case, that each of the masked competing risks is responsible for the failure. The special case for which the failure times for the competing risks have a Weibull distribution is discussed in detail.

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Revised March 2002