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Activity Number:
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245
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Type:
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Topic Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, August 13, 2002 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Government Statistics*
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| Abstract - #300986 |
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Title:
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Transitions in Light-Duty Vehicle Transportation: A Comparison of Alternative Fuel and Hybrid Vehicles
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Author(s):
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Jonathan Rubin*+ and Paul Leiby
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Affiliation(s):
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University of Maine and Oak Ridge National Laboratory
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Address:
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5715 Coburn Hall, Orono, Maine, 04469,
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Keywords:
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hybrid vehicles ; alternative fuels ; dynamic model
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Abstract:
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Alternative fuel and hybrid vehicles have been advocated in the name of energy security, air quality and GHG emission reduction. The Energy Policy Act of 1992 sets a goal of replacing 30% of conventional fuel use with alternative fuels by the year 2010. Proposed legislation (SAFE Act of 2001) would extend significant tax credits to hybrid and fuel cell vehicles. Analyses used to assess the feasibility of technologies to attain policy goals often assume mature markets, large scale vehicle production and the widespread availability of alternative fuels at retail stations. These conditions are not currently attained and are not a guaranteed outcome of market forces. We use the Transitional Alternative Fuels and Vehicles Model to simulate market outcomes for the use and cost of alternative fuel and hybrid vehicles over twenty years, considering possible transitional barriers related to infrastructure needs and production scale. Prices and choices for fuels and vehicles are endogenous. The model accounts for dynamic linkages between investments and vehicle and fuel production capacity and represents the effects of increasing scale and expanding retail fuel availability.
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