Abstract #300906

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JSM 2002 Abstract #300906
Activity Number: 113
Type: Luncheons
Date/Time: Monday, August 12, 2002 : 12:30 PM to 1:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports*
Abstract - #300906
Title: NFL Kickers: Highly Skilled Athletes Who Separate Themselves by Luck
Author(s): Donald Morrison*+
Affiliation(s): University of California, Los Angeles
Address: 110 Westwood Plaza, Los Angeles, California, 90095-1481, USA
Keywords: skill ; randomness ; salary cap ; place kickers ; football
Abstract:

Morrison and Kalwani, in the Spring 1993 issue of Chance, analyzed data from three years of data on NFL filed goal kickers. They concluded that the data were consistent with no skill difference across this elite set of athletes. This talk will briefly review the article. Then I will focus on the reactions of different audiences when they hear a presentation based on this paper. The audiences have been statisticians, MBA students, business executives, and even some football coaches. The observed behavior of NFL general managers towards their kickers pre and post the hard salary cap will be discussed. My conjecture is that after the hard cap came in, the GMs behaved as if they understood the article even though they probably don't.

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Revised March 2002