Abstract #300898

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JSM 2002 Abstract #300898
Activity Number: 250
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics & the Environment*
Abstract - #300898
Title: Autoregressive Models for Capture-recapture Data: A Bayesian Approach
Author(s): Devin Johnson*+ and Jennifer Hoeting
Affiliation(s): Colorado State University and Colorado State University
Address: , Fort Collins, Colorado, 80523, U.S.A
Keywords: Autoregressive models ; winBUGS ; Bayesian inference ; MCMC ; Survival estimation
Abstract:

We incorporate an autoregressive time-series framework into models for animal survival using capture-recapture data. Researchers modeling animal survival probabilities as the realization of a random process have typically considered survival to be independent from one time period to the next. This may not be realistic for some populations. Using a Gibbs sampling approach, we can estimate covariate coefficients and autoregressive parameters for survival models. The procedure is illustrated with a waterfowl band recovery dataset on Northern Pintails (Anas acuta). The analysis shows that the second lag autoregressive coefficient is significantly less than 0, which emphasizes that modeling survival rates as independent random variables may be unrealistic in some cases.

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Revised March 2002