Abstract #300711

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JSM 2002 Abstract #300711
Activity Number: 168
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports*
Abstract - #300711
Title: He... Could... Go... All... The... Way: Evaluating the Return of the Missed Field Goal in Canadian Football
Author(s): Keith Willoughby*+
Affiliation(s): Bucknell University
Address: , Lewisburg, Pennsylvania, 17837, USA
Keywords: sports ; regression analysis
Abstract:

We examine the return of the missed field goal, an important decision encountered in Canadian football. A player faced with this dilemma must decide between conceding a single point to the opposition, or attempting to return the ball into the field of play. Using game data from the Canadian Football League, we develop a linear regression model to determine the expected value of field position. We illustrate the yard line at which a particular team would be indifferent between starting possession of the football or conceding a single point.

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Revised March 2002