The Usage of the Delphi Approach Toward Gaining Information on Alternative Fuel Vehicles and Alternative Transportation Fuel

• Activity Number: 245
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Government Statistics*
• Author(s): Howard Bradsher-Fredrick*+
• Affiliation(s): U.S. Department of Energy
• Keywords: Alternative Fuel Vehicle ; Alternative Transportation Fuel ; Delphi ; Forecasting

Abstract

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has found it difficult to locate reliable information on important variables related to alternative-fueled vehicles (AFVs). Of particular interest were the following variables: annual vehicle miles traveled for AFVs, the portion of time flexible fueled or bi-fueled AFVs are actually operated on the alternative transportation fuel (ATF), the fuel economy of AFVs, the future annual growth rates of AFVs in the U.S. fleet, and the future growth rates of ATF usage. These variables are of importance in EIA's forecasting and modeling efforts, particularly as related to forecasting the future levels of Greenhouse Gases.

Also of interest was an estimate of the number of AFVs in the U.S. fleet and to determine how experts would attempt to determine such an estimate. Thus, it was thought that experts, through a Delphi approach, could identify new sources of information, provide estimates on the value of variables where little or no data presently exists, in addition to presenting an opinion of the data EIA already collects. The Delphi approach proved useful in achieving all of these objectves.