Abstract #300571


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JSM 2002 Abstract #300571
Activity Number: 167
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: ENAR
Abstract - #300571
Title: Space-time Disease Map Surveillance with Extensions to Bioterrorism
Author(s): Andrew Lawson*+
Affiliation(s): University of Aberdeen
Address: , Aberdeen, International, DD2 5BX, Scotland
Keywords: space-time ; surveillance ; disease ; sequential ; bioterrorism
Abstract:

The analysis of changes to disease maps over time is an important developing tool in the public health application area. Currently, a number of models exist for the retrospective modelling of space-time maps. However, little consideration has been given to the monitoring or near-real-time surveillance of such maps. In this presentation, I examine some of the issues that arise in this connection--in particular, the need for parsimony when attempting to detect changes, and the problem of goodness-of-fit interpretation. I examine the sequential fitting of two different S-T interaction models to the Ohio lung cancer data set. Extensions of the methodology to problems in bioterrorism and real-time surveillance are considered.


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