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Activity Number:
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215
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, August 13, 2002 : 12:00 PM to 1:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Biometrics Section*
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| Abstract - #300561 |
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Title:
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A Joint Longitudinal-Survival-Cure Model to Predict Recurrence in Prostate Cancer
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Author(s):
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Menggang Yu*+ and Jeremy Taylor
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Affiliation(s):
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University of Michigan and University of Michigan
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Address:
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1420 Washington Heights, Ann Arbor, Michigan, 48109, USA
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Keywords:
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Abstract:
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This talk will present an extension of cure models to incorporate a longitudinal marker. The model is motivated by studies of prostate cancer patients undergoing radiation therapy. The patients are followed until recurrence of the cancer or censoring, with the PSA marker measured intermittently. Some patients are cured by the treatment and are immune from recurrence. A cure model is developed, in which the longitudinal marker and the failure time process are modelled jointly, with a fraction of patients assumed to be immune from the endpoint. A hierarchical nonlinear mixed model is assumed for the marker and a time-dependent proportional hazards model is used for the time to endpoint. The probability of cure is modeled by a logistic link. The model is fit using Bayesian methods. The addition of the longitudinal data has the effect of reducing the impact of the identifiability problems in a standard cure model, can help overcome biases due to informative censoring, gives parameter estimates with better statistical properties and gives the predictive distribution of recurrence times for censored subjects.
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- The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
- Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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