How Do The Laws Of Probability Constrain Legislative And Judicial Efforts To Stop Racial Profiling?

• Activity Number: 148
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Monday, August 12, 2002 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Social Statistics Section*
• Author(s): Jeff Dominitz*+
• Affiliation(s): Carnegie Mellon University
• Keywords: equal treatment ; racial profiling ; monitoring

Abstract

Faced with pending legislation and litigation, numerous jurisdictions have begun programs to monitor a range of traffic stop outcomes, focusing on variation by race or ethnicity. Existing programs, however, ignore the unequal outcomes that motivate opposition to racial profiling. Statistical relationships among the various outcomes are governed by the laws of probability. These relationships limit the ability of public policy to equalize outcomes even if officers do not engage in racial profiling to "any extent or degree." This paper demonstrates relationships among five outcomes that are or should be considered when formulating policy on racial profiling: search rates, find rates, thoroughness of search, rates of detention of the innocent, and rates of apprehension of the guilty. Once decisions are made as to how to balance desires for equality of each of these outcomes, problems remain that are common to statistical assessments of pattern or practice of discrimination claims.