Abstract #300381

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JSM 2002 Abstract #300381
Activity Number: 237
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: WNAR
Abstract - #300381
Title: Methods for Forecasting Multinational Mortality Rates
Author(s): Gary King*+ and Claudia Pedroza
Affiliation(s): Harvard University and Harvard University
Address: 34 Kirkland Street, Cambridge, MA, 02138,
Keywords: forecasting ; mortality rates
Abstract:

Various international organizations forecast age-specific mortality rates for all countries, which influence national and international public policy. Most of the methodology used involves ad hoc methods to correct for missing data and small sample sizes. Here, we describe methods for forecasting mortality rates which pool information across time and age groups. We reformulate a demographic method as a Bayesian statistical model and compare the forecasts to those obtained from a random walk time series model. We present an alternative multivariate time series model which automatically handles missing observations in a systematic way. We discuss ways of pooling information to improve forecasts in countries with poor data.

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