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Activity Number:
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4
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Type:
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Invited
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Date/Time:
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Sunday, August 11, 2002 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics & the Environment*
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| Abstract - #300232 |
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Title:
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Statistical Detection of Turnaround and Recovery in Atmospheric Ozone Trend, and Assessment of Chemical and Dynamical Influences on Ozone
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Author(s):
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Gregory Reinsel*+
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Affiliation(s):
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University of Wisconsin, Madison
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Address:
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1210 West Dayton Street, Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, United States
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Keywords:
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Atmospheric ozone ; Change-in-trend ; Detection ; Recovery ; Turnaround
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Abstract:
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Due to international control measures, the emission of ozone-depleting substances has been reduced, and it is predicted that previous decreases in atmospheric ozone should lessen and eventually turn around as a recovery of ozone. To determine that a "turnaround" in the downward trend in ozone occurs, characteristics of a statistical model that allows for a change in trend at a specified date are investigated. This model affords the opportunity for detection of change in the downward ozone trend as an early signal in addition to detection of positive trend (recovery) after the change. TOMS satellite and ground station total ozone data are analyzed and their features are used to estimate the number of years of data required to detect a change in trend and a positive trend recovery. However, other climate changes and dynamical circulation changes could mask an ozone recovery. Therefore, in the change-in-trend model analysis, we also consider including exogenous terms to account for effects on ozone variability associated with atmospheric dynamical and circulational variations, and assess contributions from both chemical and dynamical influences on total ozone behavior.
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- The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
- Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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