Abstract #300106


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JSM 2002 Abstract #300106
Activity Number: 264
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 14, 2002 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: International Indian Statisticial Assoc, Reps. For Young Statisticians
Abstract - #300106
Title: Simultaneous Hormone Pulse Time and Secretion and Elimination Estimation: An Alternating Metropolis and Diffusion Scheme
Author(s): Somesh Chattopadhyay*+
Affiliation(s): Duke University
Address: ISDS, Box 90251, Durham, North Carolina, 27708-0251, USA
Keywords: hormonal data ; pulse time detection ; selective smoothing ; Gibbs sampling ; Metropolis algorithm ; diffusion
Abstract:

Hormones are secreted from the neuroendocrine and endocrine glands either in a pulsatile or a continuous manner. A pulse time is the onset of a pulse, which should be reflected by a very rapid increase in the observed concentration level. A clinician would want to estimate the unobserved secretion rates from the hormone concentration in the blood samples. To do so, one needs to incorporate the set of pulse times as a parameter in the model, it being more like a nuisance parameter. A desirable pulse-detection algorithm should produce an initial set of (estimated) pulse times, and a procedure by which to systematically add/remove pulse times, based upon the fit of a model to the data. We have developed an algorithm to simultaneously detect the underlying pulse times and the structural parameters for secretion and elimination; the methods involve extensions of Gibbs sampling and simulated annealing. The pulse time detection component is the result of a selective smoothing algorithm, a nonlinear parabolic PDE whose diffusion coefficient is inversely related to the degree of rapid increase. The application of the methods to a broad range of luteinizing hormone data will be discussed.


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