Abstract #300923

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JSM 2002 Abstract #300923
Activity Number: 117
Type: Luncheons
Date/Time: Monday, August 12, 2002 : 12:30 PM to 1:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Health Policy Statistics*
Abstract - #300923
Title: Predicting Health Care Costs: Is "Best Practice" Ready for Prime Time?
Author(s): Arlene Ash*+
Affiliation(s): Boston University
Address: 720 Harrison Avenue, Suite 1108, Boston, Massachusetts, 02118, USA
Keywords:
Abstract:

How well you can predict health care spends depends on the population, the particular costs you wish to predict, the available predictors, and whether you are predicting costs at an individual or group level. How well you need to predict depends upon what you expect to do with the answer. Managers ask statisticians to identify discrepancies between actual and predicted costs; statisticians must also counsel caution against over-interpreting such findings. The moderator has worked for over 15 years in the area of risk adjustment and predictive modeling of health care costs and invites an open discussion on problems and proposed solutions in this area.

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Revised March 2002