Activity Number:
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312
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Wednesday, August 14, 2002 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Government Statistics*
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Abstract - #300432 |
Title:
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Accounting for Business Births and Deaths in CES: Bias vs. Net Birth/Death Modeling
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Author(s):
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Monica Traetow*+ and Jurgen Kropf+ and Sharon Strifas
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Affiliation(s):
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U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Address:
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2 Massachusetts Avenue, N.E. #4860, Washington, District of Columbia, 20212, United States 2 Massachusetts Avenue, N.E. #4860, Washington, District of Columbia, 20212, United States
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Keywords:
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bias adjustment ; net birth/death model
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Abstract:
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The Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey, conducted monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, estimates payroll employment, hours, and earnings. The survey originated as a quota-based sample, but currently is transitioning to a probability-based sample. Because business births and deaths cannot be captured in a timely manner by the CES survey, they are accounted for by modeling. The bias adjustment factor used for the quota sample is discussed and compared to the net birth/death model used for the probability sample. While the latter sample uses imputation of business deaths to account for business births, an ARIMA time series model, or the net birth/death model, estimates the residual not accounted for by the imputations. In contrast, the bias adjustment factors are derived solely from a regression-adjusted mean-error model. Although both models account for business births, the bias adjustment factor model also accounts for other elements of non-sampling error. The numbers derived from the net birth/death model are compared to the results from the bias adjustment factor model.
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- The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
- Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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