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Monday Luncheons
August 14, 2000 • 12:30 pm - 2:00 pm
Statistics in Sports Luncheon
M-0 The Selection and/or Seeding of College Basketball or Football Teams for Post Season Competition: A Statistician's Perspective-David Harville, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center
Each March, the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) completes and seeds the field for its Division-I men's basketball tournament. And, each December, it selects two football teams to oppose each other in its national championship game. There are some basic characteristics that would seem to be desirable in any selection or seeding procedure. These are described, and the extent to which they are present in the current NCAA procedures is discussed. What from a statistician's perspective would seem to be superior selection and seeding procedure is proposed. The results of the 1999-2000 college basketball and football seasons are used for illustration.
Biopharmaceutical Section
Roundtable Luncheons
M-1 Genetic Profiling on Clinical Trials-S. Stanley Young, Glaxo Wellcome Inc.
M-2 Clinical Equivalence-William Blackwelder, Biologics Consulting Group
M-3 Large Scale Trials: Administrative Challenges and Organizational Aspects-Mark Bradshaw, Covance
M-4 Detection of Treatment Differences in Placebo-Responsive Conditions-David DeBrota, M.D., Lilly Research Laboratories
M-5 Analyzing Resources and Cost Data from Randomized Trials-Joseph Cappelleri, Pfizer Central Research
M-6 Design and Analysis Challenges in Pediatric Clinical Trials-Avital Cnaan, Children's Hospital, University of Pennsylvania
M-7 Molecular Diversity in Pharmaceutical Drug-Discovery Research-David Cummins, Lilly Research Laboratories
M-8 Population and Individual Bioequivalence Methods: Guidance Challenges and Alternate Approaches-Darryl Downing, SmithKline Beecham
M-9 Testing Hypotheses: Permutations? Bootstrap? Or Parametric?-Phillip Good, Information Research
M-10 Design of Cancer Prevention Clinical Trials-Yili Lu, Lilly Research Laboratories
Section on Government Statistics
Roundtable Luncheons
M-11 Nonresponse Issues in Government Household
Surveys-Nancy Bates, Census Bureau, Adriana Silberstein, Bureau of Labor Statistics
The co-chairs of the U.S. Interagency Household Survey Group (IHSNG) will facilitate a roundtable on nonresponse issues in government household surveys. Possible discussion topics include: development of consistent nonresponse definitions across surveys having difference designs, survey specific nonresponse rates, initial versus subsequent nonresponse in panel surveys and the effect that difficult interviews have on nonresponse rates. If information is available, we will also share updates on response to Census 2000.
M-12 Whither the MAF-Patricia Becker, APB Associates
Now that the decennial census use of the Master Address File (MAF) is complete for 2000, what will happen to this file? Will the work for this file be justified simply by its value for census operations? Will plans to use the MAF as the sampling frame for the American Community Survey (ACS) be realized, as well as for all major government household surveys? Will there prove to be significant potential use in population estimates? A National Academy of Sciences panel recently evaluated the Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA) partnership program intended to create a high quality MAF database. Post-2000 uses of MAF depend on evaluation from multiple levels.
M-13 International Diversity in the Ethics of Official Statistics-John Gardenier, Centers for Disease Control
The ASA published a new set of "Ethical Guidelines for Statistical Practice" in 1999. Last year also, the International Statistical Institute chartered a new "Committee on Professional Ethics." The United Nations has published general guidance for conduct of official statistical systems. These provide the backdrop for an invited paper session at JSM 2000, "Ethical Issues in Official Statistics-International Perspectives" featuring prominent governmental statisticians from the U.S., Europe, Africa and Asia. This roundtable discussion is intended follow up on that session by addressing regional differences in sensitivities to particular issues, such as personal privacy versus maximization of research opportunity in biomedicine, ethnographic equity versus demographic and socioeconomic reality, or public access to data versus rights/duties of states to protect politically sensitive information. Prospective attendees at the roundtable are encouraged to attend the invited paper session beforehand, but there is no firm requirement to do so.
M-14 Access to Care for Immigrant Families-Ann Morse, National Conference of State Legislatures
Major recent policy issues for the nation and states have concerned immigrants' eligibility for various public benefits. The focus here is two major programs: the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) and Medicaid. Multiple barriers search to diminish immigrants' access to health care. Dialogue in the roundtable seeks to address the nature of these barriers through research, review policy proposals and show the value of dissemination of best practices.
M-15 A Dual-Census GIA for U.S.-Mexico Border Twin Cities: Building It and Applying It-James Pick, University of Redlands
There is the potential to match the census attributes and geographic boundary coverages from two censuses of adjoining nations to study a joint border area. A project at University of Redlands matched 16 attributes from the Mexican and U.S. censuses and joined the boundary files together to form a consistent spatial database for border cities. The twin city small-area data were analyzed by GIS analysis, cluster analysis and binationality indices based on the cluster analysis. This roundtable discusses the goals, feasibility, methods and practical application of a dual-census GIS to study border twin cities or other joint border areas.
M-16 Virtues of the Planning Database-Gregory Robinson, US Census Bureau
This session focuses attention on the Planning or Targeting database developed in the U.S. Census Bureau in the latter 1990's for purposes of evaluating data from dress rehearsals. Past programs of census coverage evaluation yielded studies of various demographic, social, economic and housing characteristics associated with likelihood of census underenumeration. This effort drew upon those studies and available statistics to better inform 2000 Census planning.
M-17 Race and Ethnicity in Census 2000- Jorge del Pinal and Nancy Gordon, US Census Bureau
This roundtable will discuss the implications of the Office of Management and Budget's (OMB) 1997 standards for the collection of racial and ethnicity data. OMB standards now allow respondents to select one or more racial categories in the 2000 Census. What are the implications for researchers who will be using these data? How will the racial and ethnicity data be tabulated? What are the implications for analysis of these data? How will the new standards affect other data collections such as the American Community Survey, the Current Population Survey, or the Survey of Income and Program Participation? What do we know today about the extent of reporting two or more races and what can we expect in future collections?
Section on Health Policy Statistics
Roundtable Luncheons
M-18 Evidence-Based Decision-Making: How Do We Measure "Evidence?"-Keumhee Chough Carriere, University of Alberta
M-19 Experimental Design Issues in Health Services Research-Naihua Duan, Rand Corp
M-20 Data Mining in Healthcare and E-Healthcare-Colin Goodall, AT&T Labs
M-21 To Condition or Not Condition on Cluster Effects in Health Services Research: Population-Average Versus Cluster-Specific Models-Thomas TenHave, University of Pennsylvania
Section on Quality & Productivity
Roundtable Luncheons
M-22 Reliability and Survival Analysis Interchange-John Kits, Arizona State University
Those working in reliability or survival analysis are invited to a discussion of common problems, sharing results among both communities, suggesting improvements to commercial software and other topics of general interest.
M-23 Being an Examiner for the Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award Statisticians Can Serve-Richard Carlson, HealthPartners
We will discuss the statistician's role, benefits, responsibilities and experiences of serving as an examiner for the Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award.
M-24 Quality Information Useful for E-Commerce-Norma Hubele, Arizona State University
What kind and form of quality information will be required by e-commerce suppliers of commodity products?
M-25 What Do MBA Students Need to Know About SPC?-David Sylwester, University of Tennessee
What do MBA students need to know about SPC tools for quality management and how can that material be most effectively taught?
M-26 Computer-Aided Experimental Design-Douglas Montgomery, Arizona State University
Discussion on the use of computer software in planning experiments, constructing designs and analyzing data from designed experiments.
Tuesday Luncheons
August 15, 2000 - 12:30 pm - 2:00 pm
Economic Outlook Luncheon
T-0 The Global Economic Outlook and Its Implications for the Consolidation of The Auto Industry-Mustafa Mohaterm, General Motors Corporation
Section on Bayesian Statistics Sciences
Roundtable Luncheons
T-1 Teaching Bayesian Statistics-Donald Berry, University of Texas
T-2 Bayesian Model Selection-Siddhartha Chib, Washington University, St. Louis
T-3 Bayesian Non-Parametrics-Bani Mallick, Texas A&M
T-4 Simulation Ba(ye)sed Optimal Design-Peter Mueller, Duke University
T-5 Bayesian Inference and Bioinformatics-Michael A. Newton, University of Wisconsin at Madison
T-6 Bayesian Statistical Models for Internet Data-Eric Bradlow, University of Pennsylvania
Section on Statistical Education Roundtable Luncheons
T-7 QL Outreach-Lee Abramson, U S Nuclear Regulatory Commission
This roundtable will provide participants an opportunity to share their experience and to learn about the dissemination of QL outside the math classroom-both within and outside a school setting.
T-8 Getting the "Learning" into Co-Operative Learning Groups-Marjorie Bond
How can we as educators adjust the student's attitude of "let's just get this done" instead of learning the desired material of an active learning project.
T-9 How Can Professional Statisticians Help In-service Teachers Become Better Teachers of Statistics?-Judith Dill, American Statistical Association
We'll discuss how QL workshops in the past have helped teachers present statistical concepts in the classroom, look at workshops currently being offered and share ideas about what can be done in the future.
T-10 The Need for Statistical Training at Colleges and Universities for K-12 Teachers-Christine Franklin, University of Georgia
The roundtable discussion will focus on the increasing demand for properly training teachers at the K-12 level to teach statistics and probability and on how college and universities can help in meeting this need of giving both pre-service and in-service teachers the curriculum and methods needed to be able to instruct at a quality level in their classrooms.
T-11 Teaching a First-Year Seminar: What's it Like for a Statistician to Teach a Writing Course?-Melinda Harder, Ph.D., Bates College
This roundtable discussion will focus on topic selection, sample writing assignments and "what worked, what didn't" in first-year seminars designed to help students develop skills in writing, critical reasoning and research.
T-12 Experiments for Statistics Courses-From High-Tech to No-Tech-Andre Lubecke, Lander University
We'll share ideas for using experiments that: do not require completely redesigning your course; can be used with various levels of technology; require little or no equipment; and focus on student generated data.
T-13 Making Best Use of the World Wide Web in Statistics Education-R. Todd Ogden, University of South Carolina
This discussion will center on some of the unique opportunities that the web provides for statistics teachers, along with some of the associated challenges and how these can be overcome.
T-14 What Is a Statistical Poster and How Does It Compete?-Linda Quinn, QED Industries, Inc.
With the American Statistical Poster growing stronger as more local and regional competitions develop, we will discuss everything from soup to nuts-starting, funding, judging, awards-to help you start or develop a local competition.
T-15 Triumphs and Tragedies in Distance Learning-Michael Speed, Texas A&M University
A lively discussion on what worked, did not work and should have worked in teaching statistics via distance learning.
T-16 The American Statistics Project Competition-Nancy C T. Wang, MDS Harris
Teachers and statisticians wanting to know more about the competition, including the rules, judging, characteristics of winning projects and how to get involved, will enjoy this roundtable.
Social Statistics Section Roundtable Luncheons
T-17 Census 2000 Testing, Experimentation and Evaluation Program-Ruth Ann Killion
T-18 Interpreting Data That Use New Race and Ethnicity Classification System-Clyde Tucker, U S Bureau of Labor Statistics
T-19 American Community Survey and Community Address Updating System-Charles Alexander, U.S. Census Bureau
T-20 Census 2000 Status Report-John Thompson, US Census Bureau
The Census Bureau and Census 2000 will have completed non-response followup operations by the time JSM meets in August, and the Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation Survey will be out in the field. Come hear an update on these and other complex census operations during what has been the most intense period of political, social, and legal scrutiny in the history of the Bureau.
T-21 Studying Connections Among Mental Health, Violence and Criminal Justice-Douglas Samuelson, InfoLogix
T-22 Metropolitan Area Standards Review Project, New MSA Definitions-James Fitzsimmons, U S Census Bureau
Statistical Society of Canada Roundtable Luncheons
T-23 Statistics and Genetics: A Profitable Symbiosis for Natural Populations?-Christopher A. Field, Dalhousie University
T-24 Trial Design and Analysis Based on Multiple/ Recurrent Events-Richard Cook, University of Waterloo
T-25 Bridging the Gap Between the Theory and Practice of Data Analysis with Complex Survey Data-Georgia Roberts, Statistics Canada, Social Survey Methods Center
T-26 Backcasting Reclassified Series: The Case of the SIC NAICS Conversion-Marrietta Morry, Statistics Canada
Wednesday Luncheons
August 16, 2000 - 12:30 pm - 2:00pm
Section on Statistics & the Environment
Roundtable Luncheons
W-1 Spatial Statistics for Environmental Data-Montserrat Fuentes, North Carolina State University
This roundtable is designed to promote discussion among interested environmental scientists, climatologists, ecologist and statisticians on the development and evaluation of appropriate methods to quantify spatial distribution of environmental data.
W-2 Statistical Approaches to the Assessment of Environmental Models-Peter Guttorp, University of Washington
The comparison of deterministic models to data is difficult because of mismatches in terms of spatial and temporal scales, but in recent work a battery of statistical tools for such comparisons have been developed.
W-3 Statistical Survey Design of Ecological Inventory and Monitoring Programs-Anthony Olsen, USEPA Western Ecology Division
Discussion of statistical methodology and practice currently applied to the design of large-scale environmental and ecological inventory and monitoring programs, including new theoretical developments in spatially balanced random sampling.
W-4 Statistics and Global Climate Change-Ta-Hsin Li, IBM Watson Research Center
Discuss statistical issues in detecting global climate change with G. R. North, Head and Distinguished Professor of Meteorology at Texas A&M University.
W-5 Statistical Issues in Environmental Justice-Stephan Sain, Southern Methodist University
This roundtable discussion will center around the many statistical modeling and data analysis issues associated with environmental justice, a broad term that represents may political, legal, public health, environmental and statistical issues that has come to the forefront in recent years.
Section on Statistical Graphics
Roundtable Luncheons
W-6 Graphical Methods in Clinical Trials -Marian Fisher, University of Wisconsin
Vast amounts of structured and unstructured data are collected in the course of clinical trials. There is an increasing need for visualization tools to help us validate, analyze, model and communicate all aspects of these data in its context.
W-7 The Impact of Emerging Internet Technologies on Statistical and Graphical Environments-Duncan Temple Lang, University of California - Berkeley
The emergence of new Internet technologies provide the statistics community an unprecedented rich computing environment for developing advanced systems for graphics and analysis. How can we exploit technologies such as XML, distributed computing, graphics and Java, etc. to tackle ever-larger and increasingly complex problems?
W-8 Graphical Techniques for Dissemination of Large Scientific Data Sets in Printing Media-Peter Munson, National Institutes of Health
The need to present large, complex data sets summarized in large multi-dimensional tables requires new innovative graphical techniques. Data from computer experiments, molecular mechanics of protein simulations, gene-expression studies, are some examples of the challenges we face. What are some real-life examples of 3D visualizations of large data sets that don't naturally fall into 3D representations (I.e. other than geographic mapping, molecular modeling, etc.)?
W-9 Highly Interactive Visualization Tools for Large Data Sets-Gordon Willis, Research Triangle Institute
Massive databases are often times thought (naively) to capture just about all the relevant information one may possibly need for planning, problem diagnostic, knowledge discovery, etc. and that knowledge will be easily discovered if only one would find the right model. We'd like to discuss how can graphical interactive tools provide exploratory analysis and insights into these large databases. Also, what commercial and research tools are there available for this?
W-10 Publishing Data Analyses on the Web-Todd Graves, Los Alamos National Lab
Data analyses can be more powerful when published on the web, beyond the advantages of taking papers suitable for paper publishing and making them available online. During this luncheon we will discuss how the web can improve the quality of communicating analysis results, using, for example, interactive visualizations and the capability of reproducing author's analyses even while reading their papers.
Section on Physical & Engineering Sciences Roundtable Luncheons
W-11 Publication of Statistical Applications-Karen Kafadar, University of Colorado - Denver
A discussion of applications papers as a motivator for new statistical methodology will address issues such as key ingredients, benefits to a variety of readers, and stimulation of future developments, both in generality and with reference to specific papers having applications in physical, chemical and engineering sciences (e.g., 1993 Technometrics 256-267; 1995 Technometrics 176-184; 1989 JASA 945-957; participants please suggest other to kk@math.cudenver.edu)
W-12 State-of-the-Art Calibration Methods-Clifford H. Spiegelman, Texas A&M University
The statistics profession has made important contributions in the area of chemometrics; state-of-the-art techniques for calibration provide an opportunity for an enlarged role for statisticians in the future of chemometrics.
W-13 Data Integration-Alyson Wilson, Los Alamos National Laboratory
When a decision had been made in the presence of multiple sources of information, including designed experiments, results from computer models, and expert opinion, what are the appropriate ways to integrate all of these sources of information?
W-14 Teaching Statistics in an Industrial Setting-Donald McCormack, Sematech
Statisticians teaching in industry face unique challenges including classroom and nonclassroom instructional settings, nonhomogeneous audiences of varying ages and educational backgrounds and conflicting student priorities; this luncheon will discuss/debate how to best develop, deliver and evaluate statistics instruction in industrial settings.
W-15 Degradation Data Analysis and Modeling-Luis Escobar, Louisiana State University
Analysis and modeling of degradation data provide valuable insights into the condition of a system over time and provides information which can in some cases extend the user's ability to predict reliability behavior beyond what can be gleaned from traditional approaches based on analysis of failure data.
Section on Survey Research Methods
Roundtable Luncheons
W-16 Internet Survey Methodology-Karol Krotki, Intersurvey
The growing volume of web based surveys raises numerous methodological and statistical issues, including to what extent are these surveys based on representative samples and just what are other key methodological issues. The discussion will examine the extent to which the Internet offers a legitimate alternative to traditional face-to-face, mail and telephone surveys.
W-17 Standards for Reporting Response Rates- CANCELLED
W-18 Assessing Federal Survey Customer Satisfaction-Ronald Fecso, National Science Foundation
The Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology has recently started a review of customer satisfaction surveys conducted by federal statistical agencies. An important item for development is whether Internet data collection might be used for these surveys. The discussion will examine conducting customer satisfaction surveys on the web, including monitoring activities of web services and how the web can be used to improve the quality of customer satisfaction surveys.
W-19 Computer Assisted Interviewing in Federal Surveys-William Nichols
Computer assisted interviewing has now been extensively used for household, establishment and other types of surveys throughout the federal statistical system. The extent of the penetration of these methods will be discussed, including the limitations of existing applications, the methodological issue remaining to be addressed and the future of computer assisted interviewing in federal statistical system surveys.
W-20 Video Recording to Access Classroom Interactions-John Ralph, NCES
Video taped classroom sessions are being used by the NCES to assess the nature and quality of teacher performance and student teacher interactions which are important in the assessment of educational programs. Video provides rich data about the interactions that poses problems for quantification and analysis. The discussion will examine coding and analysis issues for video information that would apply to current NCES applications as well as the development of new methods for evaluating survey methodologies.
W-21 Quality of Surveys Supported by International Agencies-Charles Proctor, North Carolina State University
International agencies such as the World Health Organization, the World Bank, the United Nations Children's Fund and the US Agency for International Development sponsor surveys around the world. The methods employed in these surveys have been challenged in terms of the quality of the information produced. The discussion will provide participants an opportunity to review the methods and the quality of data produced from surveys funded by these kinds of international agencies.
W-22 Coping with Non-Response in Federal Surveys-Brenda Cox, Mathematica Policy Research, Inc.
Non-response appears to be a growing problem in many federal household and establishment surveys. The discussion will provide participants an opportunity to share information about the current trends in non-response and methods for coping with and reversing current troubling trends.
W-23 Cognitive Techniques for Establishment Survey Interviewing-Antoinette Martin, U.S. Energy Information Administration
Cognitive interviewing techniques have been employed in household survey research methodology development successfully since attempts were first made to bridge disciplinary gaps between survey methods and psychology. This discussion will focus on the use of these techniques in improving the quality of survey interviews used in establishment surveys.
W-24 Centralized Survey Editing and Processing in Government and Private Research-Renee Miller, Energy Information Agency
Survey editing and processing continues to evolve as computer assistance and other technology changes the nature of survey data collection. This discussion will examine the current state of play in centralized editing and processing of survey data as practiced in federal government agencies as well as other survey research firms.
W-25 New Paradigms or Models for Sampling?-Leslie Kish, University of Michigan
The methodological basis for combinations of survey statistics have arisen recently in two important contexts: (1) multipopulation statistics for combining national statistics, and (2) the cumulation of periodic surveys in "rolling samples". Both applications go beyond the classic concept of a single frame population. Do we need new paradigms or models? We will examine the paradigms involved in complex frame populations versus I.I.D. variables, as seen in design effects, in the "representation sampling" idea of Kiaer over 100 years ago, and finally back to Quetelet's idea of a "population," the basic idea of statistics.
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