Pacific D
Business planning with Caseload Forecasting Models and Spatial Analysis (306676)
*Rebecca Le, County of RiversideKeywords: Medi-Cal, CalFresh, self-sufficiency, caseload forecast, ARIMA, time series data, spatial analysis
The County of Riverside Department of Public Social Services (DPSS) Self-Sufficiency Division serves and supports Riverside County individuals and families to achieve and sustain health, well-being, and economic independence. The caseload estimates by office and location are important for staffing and facility planning to estimate DPSS expenditure. This research illustrates a process of how to project number of cases of self-sufficiency programs such as Supplemental Nutrition Assistance (CalFresh) and Medi-Cal programs using multiple methods including the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models (ARIMA). Then, spatial analysis using ArgGIS platform is employed to demonstrate the current caseload distribution and caseload forecasts for data-driven business planning.