Pacific AB
Community-level indicators of risk or resiliency in opioid-related mortality (306616)
Rob Lyerla, Western Michigan UniversityZev Ross, ZevRoss Spatial Analysis
Donna Stroup, Data for Solutions, Inc.
*Lance Waller, Emory University
Keywords: Small area estimation, spatial epidemiology, mortality data
We explore the use of county-level mortality data to identify community-level indicators of risk or resiliency to the ongoing opioid epidemic. First, we review indicators associated with overdoes mortality and identify trends in reporting and types of mortality during the years 2000-2017. Next, we explore model selection techniques for identifying and evaluating the impact of community-level indicators obtained from multiple publicly available data sources. We employ small area estimation techniques to assess the influence of these indicators on overall and drug-related mortality and to borrow information from neighboring regions in order to stabilize estimates from areas with smaller populations sizes. We examine factors associated with higher and lower observed mortality rates and outline potential sources of risk and resiliency relating to drug-related mortality.