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Cyclical Analysis of Business Employment Dynamics Firm and Establishment Size Data

Keywords: Peak-Trough Analysis, Size Class, Business Employment Dynamics

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Business Employment Dynamics (BED) program currently produces data series measuring job flows at the firm level. New experimental data series measuring the same job flows at the establishment level have recently been constructed. One of the properties we wish to study is whether the same cyclical properties present at the firm level are also present at the establishment level. In addition, this paper looks at how these business cycle dynamics vary across the different size classes. To study these business cycle properties a peak-trough analysis is performed on all data series. This analysis is based upon a modified algorithm presented in a 1971 NBER technical paper.