Using Historic and/or Current Trial Results to Predict the Success of a Clinical Program
*David Allan Burt, GlaxoSmithKline Keywords: Assurance, Success, Prediction, Heterogeneity, Meta-Analyses Heterogeneity of clinical trial results is a common issue that is encountered when conducting meta-analyses, but traditionally ignored when making internal decisions about the progression of a clinical program. During this presentation, we demonstrate the impact that study to study heterogeneity can have on the predictive probability of success for a future clinical trial. We will then provide between-trial predictive methods (both frequentist and Bayesian) that take into account trial to trial variability. We will also briefly describe how to compute cross-validation measures for the between trial prediction, how Phase 2 to Phase 3 bias can be estimated and incorporated into the predictions, how to predict multiple future trials (i.e. 2 pivotal Phase 3 trials both achieving success), and how between trial predictions based on historical competitor data can easily be used to assess the probability of demonstrating superiority and/or non-inferiority versus the active competitor.
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Key Dates
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November 1 - December 17, 2013
Online proposal submission for a session, short course and Town Hall Open -
January 6 - March 11, 2014
Online proposal submission for Roundtables Open -
April 30 - May 28, 2014
Abstract Submission Open -
June 4, 2014
Online Registration Opens -
August 8 - August 22, 2014
Invited Abstract Editing -
August 11, 2014
Short Course materials due from Instructors -
September 1, 2014
Housing Deadline -
September 15, 2014
Cancellation Deadline and Registration Closes @ 11:59 pm EDT -
September 22 - September 24, 2014
Marriott Wardman Park, Washington, DC