Online Program

Challenges Associated with Using Aircraft Flight Density as an Estimator for the Probability of an Aircraft Impact into a Hazardous Facility (304128)

Keywords: Aircraft Flight Density, Aircraft Crash Probability, Radar Data

An effort is underway at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to determine the probability of an aircraft impact into a hazardous facility using aircraft flight density data. The current methodology outlined in DOE-STD-3014, "Accident Analysis for Aircraft Crash Into Hazardous Facilities" calculates probability of an aircraft impact based on aircraft crash location circa late 1980 - early 1990. Utilizing radar data provided by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the flight density (flight-hr/sq-mi/yr) for an area of concern can be determined and used to estimate the probability of an aircraft crash using published NTSB crash probability data (crashes/100,000 flight-hr). This effort will provide an improved crash density estimation for non-airport related aircraft crashes and is applicable to all classes of U. S. civil aircraft operations (i.e., General Aviation and Commercial Aviation). This presentation will discuss several of the challenges associated with using radar data, including: data de-duplication, selecting density grid sizes, estimation of annual aircraft flight time within a grid element, and correlating flight density with aircraft crash probability data.