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Spatial Analysis of Fukushima Thyroid Ultrasound Examination Survey Data (303686)

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Keywords: Spatial Analysis, Epidemiology, Biostatistics, Modelling, Applied Statistics

Following the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, a Thyroid Ultrasound Examination (TUE) survey has been conducted in Fukushima Prefecture for residents of age less than or equal to 18 at the time of the accident. Of great interest is the effect of the disaster, if any, on incidence rates of childhood and adolescent thyroid cancer within the prefecture. While the TUE survey is still ongoing and results are still preliminary, we feel that an exploratory analysis of the available data at this stage may provide valuable insights and highlight interesting statistical features within the data. To that end, we use statistical techniques from spatial epidemiology to analyze and explore features of the TUE data of the first, second, and third rounds of screening as submitted by the 27th Prefectural Oversight Committee Meeting for Fukushima Health Management Survey. In particular we explore possible connections between exposure and incidence and prevalence of childhood and adolescent thyroid cancer in the prefecture. It is our hope that our results can be an informative tool for public health officials, researchers, and statisticians concerned with the thyroid cancer issue going forward.