CSP 2017 Online Program

Predict Warriors' 73-Win on April 13, 2016 (303413)

Keywords: Proportion, Binomial, Confidence Interval, Control Chart, Decision Tree

Build a predictive model to simulate the probability whether 2015-2016 Warriors can break Chicago Bull’s 1995-1996 72-Win record on April 13, 2016. Team used the ESPN NBA live database when Warriors have completed their first 50 games on Feb.6, 2016 to build a predictive model to simulate winning 73 games. Sample size 50 was determined through Power Test to derive the 1-sided Proportion Lower Confidence Interval in 70% to 99% confidence level range. Proportion Confidence level was calculated with Approximately Normal Z Statistic. Team monitored the 73W probability after Feb.6, and decided when to purchase April 13 82nd game tickets through an analytical decision tree. The control chart analysis has explained Warriors’ tough adventure when approaching the 73W history on April 13. We were able to witness and celebrate this Warriors 73W History at Oracle Arena. Our predictive model may not be very accurate all the times, but the ending was surprisingly matching our prediction made in early Feb. There are always certain degrees of risk associated with random variations. We made two smart decisions: (1) we predicted Warriors to win 73 Games, (2) we purchased our tickets earlier.