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All Times EDT

Friday, September 25
Fri, Sep 25, 3:30 PM - 4:45 PM
Virtual
Novel Survival Analysis When Hazards Are Nonproportional and/or There Are Multiple Types of Events

The Inverse-Probability-of-Censoring Weighting (IPCW) Adjusted Win Ratio Statistic: An Unbiased Estimator in the Presence of Censoring (301200)

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*Gaohong Dong, iStats Inc. 
Lu Mao, University of Wisconsin 
Bo Huang, Pfizer Inc. 
Margaret Gamalo-Siebers, Eli Lilly 
Jiuzhou Wang, ImmunoGen Inc. 
David C. Hoaglin, University of Massachusetts  

Keywords: censoring, hazard ratio, IPCW, inverse-probability-of-censoring weighting, win probability, win proportion, win ratio

The win ratio method has received much attention in methodological research, ad hoc analyses, and designs of prospective studies. As the primary analysis it supported the approval of tafamidis for treatment of cardiomyopathy to reduce cardiovascular mortality and cardiovascular-related hospitalization. However, its dependence on censoring is a potential shortcoming. In this talk, we will present the IPCW-adjusted win ratio to overcome censoring issues (Dong et al., 2020). We consider both independent and dependent censoring, common censoring across endpoints, and right censoring. Our simulation studies show that, as the amount of censoring increases, the unadjusted win proportions may decrease greatly. Consequently, the bias of the unadjusted win ratio estimate may increase substantially, producing either an overestimate or an underestimate. We will demonstrate theoretically and through simulation that the IPCW-adjusted win ratio statistic gives an unbiased estimate of treatment effect.