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Activity Number:
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28
- Computation, Design, and Quality Assurance of Physical Science and Engineering Applications
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Sunday, August 8, 2021 : 1:30 PM to 3:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Physical and Engineering Sciences
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Abstract #318933
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Title:
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Latent Function Calibration to Estimate Shock Hugoniots
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Author(s):
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Scott Vander Wiel*
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Companies:
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Los Alamos National Laboratory
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Keywords:
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regularization;
physical model;
uncertainty quantification
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Abstract:
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A Hugoniot is the set of thermodynamic states that can be achieved by shocking a material and is an important entity for simulating performance under extreme conditions. I describe fitting a physical shock model to experimental data on porous CeO2. The physical model includes a nonparametric latent function relating the characteristic pressure of the material to its degree of porosity. This function is estimated with a penalized spline technique. Uncertainties are then forward propagated to Hugoniot estimates. The statistical modeling has several interesting features: (i) estimation of systematic errors beyond reported measurement uncertainties, (ii) a local-linear approximation to the nonlinear measurement error likelihood, and (iii) use of an emulator for Bayesian calibration of the physical shock model.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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