Implications of the COVID-19 Recession for Charges of Discrimination Filed with the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission

• Activity Number: 445 - GOVT CSpeed 2
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Thursday, August 12, 2021 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
• Sponsor: Government Statistics Section
• Author(s): Mark Leach* and Michelle Barro
• Companies: Equal Employment Opportunity Commission and Equal Employment Opportunity Commission
• Keywords: COVID-19; discrimination; unemployment; inequality; pandemic

Abstract

We present analyses that assess the question of whether there exists a relationship between the economic downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the EEOC’s mission, as measured by numbers of inquiries and charges of discrimination filed against private-sector employers. Using monthly unemployment statistics and EEOC administrative records data for historical charge filings, we first examine whether charge filings are related to the monthly unemployment rate over the past thirty years. We visually observe that charge filings tended to increase in the months after each of the three recessions that occurred between 1990 and 2019. This was not the case in the initial months of the pandemic, however, when unemployment dramatically increased. Estimated regression models that account for economic, political, and policy factors provide support that EEOC charge filings generally are associated positively with unemployment, however this was not the case during the pandemic. We also forecast EEOC inquiries and charges to August 2023. The estimates generally show a cyclical yet steady volume of inquiries and charges over the next three years.